I used to think exactly like this but Ive completely changed my mind
Yeah AI isnt replacing a plumber today or tomorrow but if youre thinking 10 to 20 years out I think youre wrong to assume the physical work is safe
Boston Dynamics already has robots doing backflips and opening doors. Figure AI just raised billions to build humanoid robots for physical labor. Tesla is building Optimus specifically for repetitive physical tasks. The trajectory is pretty clear if you zoom out
Heres what I think people miss. The argument that home services are too situational and too human facing assumes robots need to be as adaptable as humans to replace them. They dont. They just need to be good enough and cheap enough. A robot that can handle 70 percent of routine handyman tasks at half the labor cost will absolutely get deployed even if it needs a human supervisor for the tricky stuff
The human facing part is the last moat to fall but its still going to fall. People said customers would never accept self checkout or automated customer service or robot delivery and now all of that is normal. Give it 15 years and a robot showing up to fix your garbage disposal wont feel weird to the next generation
Where I do agree is that the timeline for full replacement is long and the near term opportunity is exactly what you said. AI handling admin scheduling estimates follow ups and all the back office stuff that buries owners. Thats happening right now and the guys who adopt it will outcompete the guys who dont
But if youre building a home service business today and planning to pass it to your kids or sell it in 20 years you need to be watching the robotics space closely. The physical work moat is real but its not permanent
